Ontario massively benefiting from open sports betting market
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Ontario massively benefiting from open sports betting market

The International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) has recently released the results of a very detailed study that has been carried out on the practice of sports betting around the world. 

The title of this published study is ‘The Availability of Sports Betting Products: An Economic and Integrity Analysis’

Throughout this conducted research, the demand for regulated sports betting products by sports bettors from all around the globe is analyzed under a very magnetized lens. 

The IBIA describes the published results of this study as follows: 

‘The study analyses and compares the availability of sports betting products, notably online, in 12 jurisdictions where there is currently a wide variation of regulatory approach, namely: Great Britain, Italy, Ontario, Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, Portugal, Australia, Germany, Canada (excluding Ontario) and Brazil; the latter in the emerging markets section.’ 

The release of this data is backed up by several sponsors, including the Canadian Gaming Association (CGA), the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), the Netherlands Online Gambling Association (NOGA), and Responsible Wagering Australia (RWA). 

The Global Sports Betting Industry 

As discussed in this study, prepared by H2 Gambling Capital, the regulated global sports betting industry is expected to grow at an exponential rate. 

By the end of 2024, the global sports betting industry is estimated to report approximately $94 billion in gross gambling revenue, with $61 billion (65%) generated via online bets

In addition to this, the study reported that, in 2028, the expected gross revenue of this industry is expected to reach approximately $132 billion, with $93 billion (over 70%) generated via online bets

With regards to the specifics of this conducted study, the following is emphasized: 

“This study and its analysis focuses on the core sports betting products - in-play, football, tennis and basketball betting - that drive that growth globally. It assesses the market impact of the availability of those core sports betting products based on actual operator data, IBIA alert data, and H2’s own market data.  

“As such, it provides as comprehensive an assessment of the current state of play as is possible at this time. The central finding of the study is that, alongside other regulatory and economic factors – including taxation and advertising policy – there is a strong correlation between the availability of sports betting products and onshore channelling.” 

A strong regulatory and licensing framework is integral to a successful betting market 

The study highlights the importance of having a fully licensed and regulated market, specifying that the lack of such regulation could have drastic consequences on the success of that market, or lack thereof: 

“The regulatory and licensing framework provides the foundation of any policy on the availability of betting, both land-based and online. Many countries have historically regulated the supply of betting services through a monopoly operator, often state owned and land-based.  

“Choice and competition is consequently restricted, as is related product attractiveness and innovation. With the advent of online betting, that predominantly land-based supply has been challenged by offshore betting services often providing a modern broader product catalogue. 

“The consumer migration to those offshore services has resulted in jurisdictions losing oversight and control of consumer gambling activity, along with taxable revenues.” 

A great example of this, the study emphasizes, is Ontario

“Canada is a useful case study where Ontario broke away from the monopoly model in operation across Canada and introduced an online sports betting licensing system that has been operational since April 2022.  

“As a result, Ontario’s onshore sports betting channelisation is expected to reach 92% in 2024. In contrast, the rest of Canada combined is forecast to have an onshore rate of around 11% and is expected to lose $2bn in taxable sports betting GGR offshore during 2024-28.” 

The results obtained from this study 

 Ontario Sports Betting Market 

Onshore Channeling (2024)Onshore Gross Win (2024)Offshore Gross Win (2024)Estimated Lost Tax 2024-2028
92%$506M$42M$33M

The following table depicts the onshore and offshore sports betting market of Ontario spanning the period of time between 2020 and 2028

YearOnshore GGROffshore GGRTotal OnlineTax RateTax Lost
2020-$130.6M$130.0M20.0%$26.1M
2021-$177.3M$177.3M20.0%$35.5M
2022$246.9M$108.9M$355.9M20.0%$21.8M
2023$454.3M$53.1M$507.4M20.0%$10.6M
2024$505.9M$41.6M$547.6M20.0%$8.3M
2025$605.9M$36.4M$642.3M20.0%$7.3M
2026$708.8M$32.0M$740.8M20.0%$6.4M
2027$808.7M$29.3M$838.0M20.0%$5.9M
2028$891.5M$27.0M$918.4M20.0%$5.4M

Canadian Sports Betting Market (Excluding Ontario) 

Onshore Channeling (2024)Onshore Gross Win (2024)Offshore Gross Win (2024)Estimated Lost Tax 2024-2028
11%$45M$355M$395M

The table below depicts the Canadian onshore and offshore sports betting market (excluding the province of Ontario) spanning the period of time between 2020 and 2028

YearOnshore GGROffshore GGRTotal OnlineTax RateTax Lost
2020$17.3M$210.5M$227.8M20.0%$42.1M
2021$25.7M$285.0M$310.6M20.0%$57.0M
2022$34.7M$328.1M$362.8M20.0%$65.6M
2023$40.5M$337.0M$377.5M20.0%$67.4M
2024$45.4M$355.0M$400.4M20.0%$71.0M
2025$50.6M$375.8M$426.4M20.0%$75.2M
2026$55.7M$395.4M$451.1M20.0%$79.1M
2027$61.1M$414.6M$475.7M20.0%$82.9M
2028$66.8M$434.4M$501.3M20.0%$86.9M

Overall Data 

In this way, this data appears to suggest that an open sports betting market will dictate the market’s success. Or, rather, that those gaming markets with successful gaming industries are those that have open competition

The open market in the province of Ontario has proved to have many benefits, chief of which is the way in which it allows the jurisdiction to have complete oversight of regulated wagering

Additionally, this oversight can be carried out whilst also keeping residents from utilizing other offshore services

As demonstrated by the data above, the same cannot be said for the sports betting market in Canada, with the exclusion of Ontario. 

About the authorOlivia Cazenave
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